It’s U.S. Open week. This year the tournament will be held at Oakmont Country Club in Oakmont, Pennsylvania. Oakmont and the U.S. Open have a long history together; this will be the ninth time that the course has hosted the event. In those previous eight tournaments, the winner has finished with a score no better than five-under.
The Course
The course is tough. Unrealistically tough. “It’s the hardest course we’ve played,” says Phil Mickelson, and Phil would know considering his long history of close finishes at the U.S. Open. The greens are fast, like blazingly fast. According to the USGA, they will be set up to run between 14 and 14.5 on the stimp meter, but as the day goes on, if there is no rain, that number will rise, so expect just a few three putts. If you were thinking that the fairways would be any slower, you would be wrong. They are pretty fast; fast enough to putt from 118 yards out on a downhill slope. This will benefit the long hitters who will be getting a lot of roll on their drives. Of course if those drives miss the fairway, the players will have to deal with rough that’s thick enough to drop a ball right in front of your feet and lose it as Justin Thomas and company showed us earlier this week.
The Favorites According to Vegas
Jason Day
(Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)
Clearly Jason Day has had a phenomenal season. Entering the second major of the year Day already has three wins under his belt and in two of those wins he held the lead from the end of round one until he lifted the trophy. Day’s wins include the Arnold Palmer Invitational, WGC-Dell Match Play, and the Players Championship. Day is hitting the fairway 56% of his drives. He’ll need to be deadly accurate with the driver or continue to use that 2-iron that he seemingly hits 350 yards. Day’s biggest advantage so far this season has been his putting. He currently ranks first in strokes gained putting at 1.145. That will need to continue at Oakmont if he wants to win a second major championship.
Odds – 7/1
Jordan Spieth
(Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
Jordan Spieth is the defending champion, and he could have had better odds or the same odds as Day entering this tournament, but Spieth sputtered after his season opening cash grab tour and after a devastating back nine at the Masters, and didn’t collect a win until May 29th at the Dean and DeLuca Invitational. Spieth followed up that stellar performance with a tie for 57th at the Memorial tournament. Spieth’s putter has been good, but it feels like it hasn’t been quite as on as it was in 2015 when he won the first two majors of the year. Where Spieth struggles is hitting greens in regulation. He ranks 117th and is hitting just under 64% of greens in regulation. He’s made up for it by playing spectacularly around the greens, but at Oakmont if you miss a green the ball may just continue to roll into another state. While Spieth isn’t the longest off of the tee, he has been pretty accurate hitting 61% of fairways.
Odds – 8/1
Rory McIlroy
(Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
Rory McIlroy hasn’t won a PGA Tour event since the Wells Fargo Championship in May of 2015, but he also has a win in his last two events. McIlroy won the Irish Open and on his way to collecting his first win in 2016 he hit some pretty amazing shots. McIlroy’s advantage here is his driving. He currently ranks first in strokes gained off the tee and is averaging 305 yards off of the tee, and, like Spieth, is hitting 61% of fairways. The biggest question for Rory will be his putter. Will he go with left hand down like he did when he won the Irish Open, or will he continue to use a traditional grip like he did at the Memorial tournament? Only Rory knows for sure what’s best for him, but if he wants to win a second U.S. Open title, he’ll need to have whichever grip he’s using on point.
Odds – 17/2
Dustin Johnson
(Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)
Dustin Johnson has become the new Phil Mickelson at the U.S. Open. Twice in his career Johnson has had a very good opportunity to win a major championship at the U.S. Open, and twice he’s lost in dramatic fashion. Johnson’s first chance came in 2010 when he had a three-stroke lead heading into the final round and ended up shooting a very disappointing 82. The second was in 2015 at Chambers Bay when Johnson took three putts on the 18th hole and lost to Jordan Spieth by one stroke. Johnson hasn’t won since March of 2015 at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. In the time since, he’s finished tied for sixth, tied for second, tied for 49th, tied for seventh, and tied for fourth in major tournaments. In his last nine tournaments this season, Johnson has six finishes in the top five. He’s been great with the driver and great on his way to and around the greens, but his putting has always held him back. His game is good enough to win a major championship, and if he can get over the hump and claim that first major victory it could open the door for him and make life a lot easier in future majors.
Odds – 16/1
Adam Scott
(Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Adam Scott is the only other player this season not named Jason Day to win in back-to-back weeks. Scott was forced to give up his belly putter entering this season and was written off by many until those wins. Since winning the Honda Classic and WGC-Cadillac Championship, Scott has not had a top 10 finish in six straight events, finishing as high as tied for 12th twice. Where Scott excels is strokes gained tee-to-green where he ranks first at 2.087. Scott, like Johnson, will need to have his putter working if he wants to have a chance at winning a second major championship. His best finish at the U.S. Open was a tie for fourth in 2015 when he finished just two strokes behind Jordan Spieth.
Odds – 24/1
Rickie Fowler
(Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Vegas believes that Rickie Fowler deserves 24/1 odds; I don’t. I haven’t seen anything from Fowler this season that says he will be able to win at Oakmont. Fowler’s best finish came early in the season at the Phoenix Open where he finished second after entering a playoff with Hideki Matsuyama. In his last six events, including the Masters, Fowler has missed three cuts; two of those were in his last two events, the Players and the Memorial tournament. Even though he has six top 10 finishes in 14 events this season, Fowler has been trending in the wrong direction. His driving has been great, he ranks fifth in strokes gained off-the-tee, and his approach to the green has also been great, he ranks fifth in that category as well, but for some reason he hasn’t been able to put it all together lately and right the ship that he was on at the end of last season when he won three tournaments.
Odds – 24/1
My Favorites
Jason Day
Jordan Spieth
Rory McIlroy
Dustin Johnson
Phil Mickelson
(Photo by Matt Sullivan/Getty Images)
Phil had a pretty solid start to his season finishing in the top five in his first six events and missing only one cut, but after that start he hit a bump in the road. Phil missed the cut at the Masters, followed that up with a missed cut at the Texas Open, finished tied for fourth at the Wells Fargo Championship, and then missed the cut at the Players. Entering the FedEx St. Jude Classic, Phil said, “The reason I’m here selfishly, it really gets me ready for — to get my game sharp, to play competitive for the U.S. Open, which is a tournament I would love to win to cap off my career, and I feel like playing here and playing well gives me the best chance to do that.” Those words rang true as Lefty finished tied for second and was three strokes back of winner Daniel Berger. Phil has also had his putter on-point this season and that was evident last week. He currently ranks third in strokes gained putting and second in strokes gained total.
Odds – 35/1
Patrick Reed
(Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Patrick Reed has three second place finishes this season. His biggest advantage this week is the fact that he leads the Tour in strokes gained around the green and is second in scrambling. Both could have a huge impact on a course that requires a great short game around the green. He’ll need to get those shots close to the hole in order to have success though because his putter has been dreadful. He ranks 107th in strokes gained putting. That’s not too good.
Odds – 40/1
Brooks Koepka
(Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports)
Brooks Koepka may not be a name you’d expect to be on this list, but he’s coming off of a second place finish at the AT&T Byron Nelson and a tie for second at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Prior to those two tournaments, Koepka had missed the cut in two of the four events he started. With two solid performances behind him, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a good showing from Koepka at Oakmont.
Odds – 50/1
Just Missed the List
Justin Rose
Hideki Matsuyama
Sergio Garcia
Danny Willett
Matt Kuchar
My Pick
It would be dumb to pick anyone not named Day, Spieth, or McIlroy, but where’s the fun in that? I want to see Dustin Johnson finally win a major tournament, and what better tournament than the U.S. Open on one of the toughest courses? Johnson has played spectacular golf in really his last nine starts. Those six top-five finishes tell me that his game is good enough to break through. If he can get over the hump and win the U.S. Open, Johnson would instantly become one of the big three’s scariest opponents.
If not DJ, I’d love to see Phil win. Why? Because he would complete the career grand slam and cement what has already been a spectacular career as one of the best golfers ever.
from The Big Lead http://ift.tt/238uGOS
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