The 2016 offseason is shaping up to be a wild one on the QB carousel. There’s always some turnover at the position, but a confluence of factors is shaping up to make 2016 far more intriguing than past versions (perhaps going back to when Peyton Manning was a free agent, and Washington was making a blockbuster trade to get Robert Griffin III).
Last year, the big event was the St. Louis and Philadelphia swap of Nick Foles and Sam Bradford, a move that hasn’t really worked out for either side (though the Eagles paid a premium in picks and salary for the privilege). Other than that, it was the usual couple of top draft pick replacements (Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota), and musical chairs among stop-gap options (Tyrod Taylor to Buffalo, Josh McCown to Cleveland, moving Brian Hoyer to Houston, moving Ryan Fitzpatrick to the Jets).
Several things are combining to create this year’s dynamics. The quarterbacks who were supposed to be the next stars have flamed out. There is a huge vacuum in the league in terms of quarterbacks in what should be prime QB age (27 to 31) who are dominating. The quarterback contracts have been escalating rapidly, and there may be a market correction coming. The top 10 teams with the highest QB cap charges this year, for example, are collectively 48-52, hardly evidence that spending at the position is justified by results.
By my count, there are seven teams who have key free agent or other personnel decisions at the position, combined with others that could be in the mix depending on coaching and front office changes, and contract circumstances that make a move feasible.
Denver: Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler
Mike Florio said on Sunday Night that Peyton Manning would return in 2016, even if it wasn’t with the Broncos. The timing of that was curious, but so far this year, it looks like this should be the final season for Manning. Until he officially announces his retirement, though, that will be a big story line.
Meanwhile, Brock Osweiler will get a chance to start some games. Osweiler is a fourth-year player who is a free agent after the season. Will he do enough to return to Denver? Or, will another organization take a gamble on him based on the limited number of games, and offer a big contract?
San Francisco: Colin Kaepernick
Kaepernick’s contract was not nearly as big as initially reported, and provided several outs. San Francisco can release him before injury-only amounts become fully guaranteed for 2016, and it’s hard to see them not doing that. I suppose they could seek a trade. Philadelphia (see below) with Chip Kelly, would be a fit, though I’m not sold on a trade at that $21 million cap charge being the option (Better to let him get released, put in a new contract, and sell him on you as the best option for his skills).
Washington: Robert Griffin III, Kirk Cousins, and Colt McCoy
Kirk Cousins, like Osweiler, is a fourth-year player who will be a free agent. Colt McCoy is also a free agent in Washington, and I could see a team giving him an opportunity to compete or come in as a top backup in a Fitzpatrick/Geno Smith type situation. There have been rumblings about a contract extension for Cousins in D.C. after the Saints game, though we have six more games for that case to be made.
Robert Griffin III, meanwhile, will almost certainly be released this offseason, before his injury-only guarantee becomes fully guaranteed. He will get a chance somewhere else to compete as a starter. Depending on how the Denver situation shakes out (since they won’t be in a position to draft an immediate starter), I could see Griffin being a fit in Kubiak’s rollout/bootleg offense, one that turned around Jake Plummer’s career. Then again, Kubiak is part of the Mike Shanahan tree, and things ended poorly between Griffin and Shanahan.
Philadelphia: Sam Bradford
Bradford turned down a contract extension before the season. Now, with all of the other opportunities that may be available this offseason, it’s fair to wonder whether Philadelphia will want to retain him. He’ll be in the mix to start somewhere, and could be part of another musical chairs situation.
St. Louis: Nick Foles
Foles has a dead cap hit next year of 9.75 million, according to Spotrac. So I don’t know that he will be moved, but he has already been benched in St. Louis and you can expect competition, and maybe a coaching change depending on how the Rams close this year out.
Houston: Brian Hoyer
Hoyer signed a two-year deal with Houston. He will almost certainly be back with the team next year, but in what capacity? I’m not sure this organization can settle on Hoyer again with other options that may be available in free agency or via trade.
New York Jets: Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith
Ryan Fitzpatrick is a free agent who was on a very team-friendly deal as far as starting salaries go. If he is still starting, he will want more money. Geno Smith will be entering the final year of his rookie contract. Can the team justify to the fan base letting Fitzpatrick walk and going back to Smith? Or will they pursue a trade of Smith regardless of what happens to Fitzpatrick (Smith is still on a friendly contract for a backup).
Cleveland: Johnny Manziel
Manziel said he would not be a distraction immediately after being named starter, and took a few hours of relaxation before being photographed clubbing with champagne bottles. He was demoted to third string.
This organization is in constant chaos, and who knows what the coaching situation will be next year? Manziel was going to have six games to convince someone that he could be the starter going forward. Now, that’s gone.
Detroit: Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford is still relatively young, turning 28, but 2016 could be a make or break year. From a salary cap perspective, it’s the first time the team won’t be upside down on him. There will be a new front office, and probably a new coach, in Detroit. If you think he can be an all-pro as he enters his late 20’s and early 30’s, you obviously keep him.
He still has value, though, and two years left on a contract. He carries a $22.5 million cap charge next year. Detroit could be drafting near the top AND be able to get a package of picks for Stafford. I think they at least have to consider it.
Miami: Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill is the same age as Stafford. He looks like he’s on his way to another Ryan Tannehill year, slightly below the league average in most passing categories. By ESPN’s QBR, he’s playing worse despite the similar rate stats. You aren’t cutting Tannehill next year–his cap number is cheap and the dead money hit would be huge, and so in a vacuum, yeah, he’s worth bringing back. But I do think it is the time to trade him, if the new front office isn’t a believer. Like Stafford, you will still find buyers where you probably won’t in 2017.
Because of his contract, he is basically signed through 2016, and then on a year-to-year with big cap charges. His value is much greater in 2016 than it will be in 2017 when it comes to trade for that reason. If he goes through another season putting up basically his career averages, he’s not worth the $20 million cap charge that will ensue thereafter.
New Orleans: Drew Brees
Drew Brees is a Hall of Famer. He is synonmous with the Saints and tied with head coach Sean Payton since coming to New Orleans. He also carries a whopping $30 million cap charge for next season, and the Saints would save $20 million by releasing him. I’m not saying it will happen, but you can expect some drama this offseason. The Saints are now 29-29 over the last four seasons, with one playoff appearance. The defense is a mess, and the roster isn’t what it was five years ago. Brees will turn 37 this January.
The recent status quo isn’t working. Maybe they restructure and push it off for a few years, see if they can get a quick fix at defense, and give it one more go. This feels more and more like a much larger move is coming at the top of the organization, and Sean Payton may be gone. If there are seismic changes in New Orleans, though, Brees’ cap number could be an issue, and could lead to Brees again being available.
Cutler and Rivers?
Jay Cutler — Bears couldn’t cut him this year. Next year, his dead money charge is less than cap hit and it would be an option. New staff with John Fox, and time may be up in Chicago in a rebuild.
from The Big Lead http://ift.tt/1OyPfx7
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