June offers dueling soccer tournaments: Copa America Centenario and Euro 2016. The former is on FS1. The latter is on ESPN. This concurrence will offer an interesting case study. Will a foreign ESPN affair outstrip a tournament on U.S. soil, featuring (at least for a time) the USMNT?
The U.S. soccer fan community is, in truth, multiple communities. These dueling tournaments hit the bifurcation among English language fans, between the Europhile and the domestic. This is no hard, fast divide. But, it exists.
MLS partisans can be loud and cultish. Europhiles tend to exist in greater numbers. The most valuable soccer TV rights in the United States are the English Premier League. NBC Sports’ six-year $1 billion deal dwarfs the combined U.S. Soccer/MLS one with ESPN/FOX/Univision. As soccer’s popularity has exploded, MLS Cup Final ratings have either stagnated or declined.
Copa America, as mentioned, has two apparent advantages. The USMNT is playing in that tournament. The tournament is happening on home soil. But, it’s not clear how much that helps.
What does “home soil” mean in 2016? Local newspaper coverage is no longer a relevant metric. Home soil, for most, is the living room or imbibing establishment where the match is being screened. Physical location makes no difference. Is Santa Clara “home soil” for a viewer in Louisville?
The USMNT does provide a boost, but that has been to about 1.5 or 1.6 million viewers in the first two matches. ESPN averaged more than a million-per-match for Euro 2012.
ESPN televising Euro 2016 gives it a huge boost. The WWL has a bigger audience, better promotion, and remains the default sports network for the casual audience. It can, in a very real sense, set the mainstream discussion. That’s no knock on FS1. It’s still a smaller network with more limited resources. But, a tournament on ESPN will rate better, at least for English language viewers.
Euro 2016 has greater star power. Six of our Top 10 players in the world will appear. Just one, Sergio Aguero, has appeared in Copa America thus far. Neymar was pulled by Brazil for the Olympics. Uruguay was eliminated before Luis Suarez could take the field. Lionel Messi missed Argentina’s first match, though he is expected to play against Panama tonight.
Another advantage for Euro 2016: it’s on earlier. Group stage matches will happen at 9am, 12pm, and 3pm ET. That should pay dividends for weekend matches during the knockout rounds. Fans may be soccer’d out by the time Copa America’s third round of group matches kick off.
Copa America, despite all of South America being Eastern Time Zone or earlier, has opted for late kickoffs. Four more group matches and three knockout round games will kick off at 9pm ET or later. That has been a boon for Univision in the Southwest. But, may be dragging on the East Coast and Midwest English language audience.
One can debate the importance of Copa America Centenario for a U.S. World Cup bid. But, empty, cavernous football stadiums thus far, even for the USMNT, have not been a good optic.
Professional and International soccer have expanded in popularity in the U.S. over the past decade. Juxtaposing these tournaments over the coming month may give us a better idea which brand is driving it.
from The Big Lead http://ift.tt/1UHJNZj
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