The College Football Playoff selection committee will release its latest rankings tonight. And this version is much tougher to predict than previous installments. Ohio State’s surprising home loss to Michigan State, combined with Notre Dame’s lackluster performance against Boston College and Oklahoma’s survival against TCU make for a much murkier crystal ball.
Rivalry week will bring marquee games between playoff hopefuls. On-field results will help sort things out. No one denies this. But tonight’s order matters. If the Sooners and Irish both win out, it will be harder for the committee to make a change in their order than to keep it the same.
Here’s my best guess what we’ll see when the much-anticipated rankings are announced.
What the top eight will look like:
- Clemson
- Alabama
- Iowa
- Notre Dame
- Oklahoma
- Michigan State
- Baylor
- Ohio State
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What the top eight should look like:
- Clemson
- Alabama
- Iowa
- Oklahoma
- Michigan State
- Notre Dame
- Baylor
- Ohio State
The Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma vs. Michigan State debate is tricky. Quantitative metrics can be used to support any of the three. The same could be said about the eye test.
So why the belief that the committee will keep the Fighting Irish in the No. 4 spot? Because they love that two-point road loss to Clemson when compared to a Texas loss or Nebraska loss. For all the talk about quality wins, expect it to come down to whoever “wins” the loss column.
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Also, fair or not, Notre Dame gets the tiebreaker in any situation because, well, they are Notre Dame.
I have the Sooners and Spartans higher than the Irish because they both have better quality wins. Oklahoma’s wins over Baylor and TCU are better than ND’s signature victory over Navy. Michigan State has three higher quality wins in Ohio State, Michigan and Oregon.
Mark Dantonio’s team, in fact, may have the best resume of any team outside of Clemson. But this is the same team that needed a full 60 minutes to beat Purdue and Rutgers. Comparatively, Oklahoma has been more consistent.
As this season goes on, it’s becoming clear just how difficult it is to select the top four teams with any sense of confidence. Our one-loss team blind taste test is maddening. Likewise, there will be a few angry fanbases tonight. That’s a guarantee. Guessing which ones grab the pitchforks, however, is more difficult.
Time will tell.
from The Big Lead http://ift.tt/1R5Bskq
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