The Playoff
The 2015 college football season heads into its final weekend. One or two games remain for all contenders. Here is how the playoff race shakes out.
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Clemson: The Tigers are undefeated. They have impressed. They have quality wins over Notre Dame and Florida State. Beat the Carolinas and Clemson is the No. 1 seed. Drop either game and their milquetoast ACC schedule makes things very interesting.
Alabama/Florida: Most consider Alabama the nation’s best team. Beating Auburn and Florida makes them a lock. The Gators looked like poop against Florida Atlantic. Will that affect them? Not really. We’re not saying Florida will win out. But, if they do, with wins over Florida State and Alabama, that one hiccup won’t matter.
Iowa/Michigan State: Iowa is 11-0. Beat Nebraska. Beat the East champion. They are in. Michigan State is (or should be) a lock at 12-1. Let’s look at the Spartans’ potential résumé. Top 20 wins over Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, and Oregon. Three of those wins came outside East Lansing. Narrow loss on the road on a missed call. Not sure the Spartans are among the four best teams. But, most deserving? Absolutely.
Oklahoma: The Sooners survived a TCU comeback bid on a failed two-point conversion. If they win out, they will have taken out the three Big 12 contenders the final three weeks. They also went on the road and beat a decent SEC team. Their “brand” is as strong as anyone. The path of least resistance is to choose Oklahoma over Notre Dame.
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Notre Dame: The Irish have a decent aggregate schedule. The trouble is big wins count more than having the best loss. Notre Dame plays Stanford. They need to, because their best wins right now are Navy and Temple. Oklahoma would have three wins on par with Notre Dame’s best win.
Baylor/Oklahoma State: Losing a big game negates an opportunity for a big win. Baylor could be Big 12 champ, winning out with OSU beating Oklahoma. Would victories over TCU (9-3) and OSU (10-2) be enough to get them past Notre Dame? Oklahoma State’s resume would be wins over Oklahoma and a banged up TCU. These teams are not out, but it’s not as cut-and-dry for the Big 12 as it would be with Oklahoma winning the conference.
Ohio State/Michigan: Both teams need Penn State to beat Michigan State. OSU can finish 11-1, but that one win over Michigan would not be enough of a résumé. The Buckeyes would need that second win over Iowa. Michigan at 11-2 would have Top 20 wins over Ohio State, Iowa, and Northwestern.
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Stanford: Still a chance, but a small one. Stanford can knock Notre Dame out. The trouble is that may be their one ranked win. How much would two wins over 9-4 UCLA count for? Maybe Wazzu finishes Top 25? It’s hard to see the Cardinal pushing ahead of a one-loss team. A debate with Michigan would turn to common opponents. Stanford lost to Northwestern. The Wolverines obliterated them 38-0.
North Carolina: The Tar Heels can still go 12-1. But, beating Clemson would be their entire résumé. Their best regular season win would be…Pitt. Start rooting for every upset conceivable.
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Mark Dantonio: Michigan State edged Ohio State in the horseshoe 17-14. The Spartans’ staff completely restructured the offense, in a week, with Connor Cook out. Their defense held Ohio State to 2.9 yards/play. But for two inopportune fumbles, Ohio State would not have scored. That may be the best comprehensive coaching performance of the year. Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh…are chasing the Green, White, and Bronze.
UConn: Home dogs in the AAC. Look at Bob Diaco all of a sudden. The Huskies took down undefeated Houston 20-17, sullying Tom Herman’s new car smell. The win included a YOLO wide receiver pass for a touchdown. UConn is going bowling for the first time since Randy Edsall abandoned them.
Northwestern: The Wildcats reeled off their fourth-straight one-score conference win, beating Wisconsin 13-7 in Madison. If Northwestern beats Illinois, they finish 10-2 (with a win over Stanford) and sneak into the Top 15. Huge for a potential Iowa or Michigan résumé. Any major program want to make another run at Pat Fitzgerald?
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SEC East: SEC-esta week did not go so great for the East. There were some fierce in-state battles. Florida needed overtime to get past Florida Atlantic. Georgia needed overtime to get past Georgia Southern. South Carolina fell 23-22, to the Citadel. That narrative about a slog and incomparable depth and athleticism…is about the SEC West.
Les Miles: Les Miles may be coaching for his job. It’s not going well for him. The Tigers went on the road after losses to Alabama and Arkansas. They added a third, by three touchdowns, to Ole Miss. LSU needs a complete restructuring on offense. Letting Miles orchestrate that should be contingent on players wanting to play for him. Alas, that seems to be a major part of the problem.
James Franklin: Penn State lost 28-16 to Michigan at home. The manner should concern fans more than the result. Three drives ended with Penn State opting to run Saquon Barkley on downs of four yards or longer, including a 3rd and Goal from the 9. The Nittany Lions had the ball inside the Michigan 10 three times and failed to score a touchdown. Penn State kicked a field goal from the 1-yard-line trailing 21-13 with eight minutes left. The Nittany Lions need talent and depth to get back. They also need a coach to take the initiative when it counts.
from The Big Lead http://ift.tt/1X9ulMK
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