Aaron Rodgers was amazing last night. That’s nothing new, but if you are on the other side of it, well, let me tell you it is not fun. Forget the touchdown passes, the offense was humming along and put up 38 on the Chiefs’ pretty good (though limited at cornerback after injury) defense. It could have been more.
But don’t let your lyin’ eyes deceive you. The guys over at Pro Football Focus are here to tell you that he was just average.
Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers ended last night’s game with a -0.8 grade overall. This isn’t a bad game, just because the number begins with a minus, but it is an average grade very close to zero for a player who threw five touchdown passes, which seems crazy on the face of it. It’s not.
It actually is. But let’s continue.
The other three touchdowns, however, were passes thrown short of the end zone on speed outs to Randall Cobb. Were they bad throws? No, they were expected throws with the credit going to Cobb for fighting through contact or defeating the coverage with speed to the edge. That makes these zero-graded throws: Three passes that have a massive effect on Rodgers’ statistical performance but do not increase his grade.
Hold on, let’s stop right here. All of these plays were basically dressed up differently, but involved picks/outside receivers blocking while Randall Cobb ran a quick out from the inside receiver position. I’m not sure why we are giving Rodgers zero credit here but acting like Cobb was totes amazing. These are great plays near the end zone (I highlighted how teams need to throw short of the end zone more in the red zone in a detailed breakdown of what worked). Cobb didn’t make a particularly amazing athletic play in any of the three, any more than Rodgers made one of his hardest throws of the game.
The first one involved a pick play, and Cobb made contact with the defender about two feet short of the end zone and barely got across the line. On the second, the blocking was set up, and he was able to dive in as the trailing defender grabbed his ankles. On the third, the defense wasn’t even close, and Janis had a good enough block that the defender got only partial contact as Cobb went into the end zone. We could find many receivers who could have scored on those plays. Rodgers would have had a great game regardless of whether those were 3 yard touchdown runs or short passes, but let’s not act like Rodgers gets zero credit and Cobb all of it when it is mostly play design and getting the defense in the right situation.
I’ll agree with the point that they weren’t the toughest of throws. The one on 2nd and 18 to Jones is way more impressive. I bet Jones got a really good grade on that one.
Outside pressure, calmly stepping up, and making a throw that Alex Smith would never attempt against pretty good coverage with a small window to fit it in. Over the last five years, teams have turned the ball over 8.3% of the time when passing on 2nd and 18, while getting a first down 9.1% of the time. That, then, is a risky situation and a very valuable play. We don’t know where PFF would put that, but obviously not enough to overcome the rest of his average night, even though it’s a highly valuable play in both EPA (expected points added) and WPA (win probability added) and almost entirely due to Rodgers’ calmness, confidence, and accuracy.
However, those touchdown passes aren’t the story of what takes Rodgers’ grade from a grade with a plus in front of it to a grade with a minus in front of it. The story of what takes Rodgers’ grade below zero are two plays that you aren’t likely to see mentioned anywhere else today, but are taken into account of in a play-by-play grading system.
1. Rodgers had a fumble, which displayed poor pocket management, with 8:39 remaining in the second quarter. That play earned a negative grade.
HOLD ON. Like I was relatively good until I came to this point. Here’s the play if you don’t recall it.
You may not recall it, though, because it was not a fumble. The play didn’t count because there was a defensive penalty for illegal contact. I understand why, when evaluating players, you wouldn’t want to necessarily ignore the plays wiped out by penalties. If a defensive back makes a great pass breakup, but there is a late hit on the QB, for example, you don’t pretend it didn’t happen when evaluating the player. But in this case, the illegal contact was on the receiver in the left side of the end zone, exactly where Rodgers starts looking as he hesitates and double clutches just before the ball was knocked out. Part of his poor pocket management was caused by hesitation upon seeing contact on a receiver who was not open, and which directly drew the flag that negated the fumble. If there’s any doubt about whether an infraction impacted the performance of a player, might want to throw it out.
So if that play causes you to downgrade Rodgers from all the other things that he did so well, I think that’s a “you” and your process problem, and not a Rodgers problem.
2. With 12:58 remaining in the third quarter, Rodgers forced a pass that Josh Mauga could and possibly should have been returned for six points for Kansas City. If Mauga makes this interception, it would have tacked an ugly interception onto Rodgers’ stat line. Instead, Rodgers maintained his interception-less streak at Lambeau field, but it is a negatively graded play regardless. These are poor plays on Rodgers’ part that bring his game grade down that won’t show up on any widely quoted statistical analysis of his performance.
This was a bad play, and Rodgers got away with it. Not sure how many linebackers come up with that rocket, but it’s somewhere between 0% and 100%. The issue here is how much that one play downgrades the game. I don’t think that one play offsets the positives to the point of being average.
The greatness of Rodgers’ performance last night was in the intangibles. Recognizing the blitz, drawing the defense offsides, catching the Chiefs in bad situations and exploiting those scenarios with simple passes to open receivers. But you cannot — and we do not try to — quantify intangibles …
Offsides drawn are tangible, by the way. Like, you can literally count them. You can also assign a value to them based on the value of gaining five yards without use of a down. On the other hand, divining that Aaron Rodgers gets no credit for three short goal line touchdowns, while Randall Cobb was incredible, is subjective regardless of how many decimals and +/- signs you want to put in front of it. Quantifying a play where there was actually no play, but giving Rodgers negative credit for it, is a subjective opinion. The numbers don’t add it. Trust your lying eyes, not someone else’s trying to sell you something.
from The Big Lead http://ift.tt/1LMMwAS
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