Women's World Cup Preview: The U.S. Must Win Group D

The 2015 Women’s World Cup starts tomorrow. Mike Cardillo took a look at some prominent players. Here is a breakdown of the teams, brackets and major storylines.

THE CONTENDERS

The United States: The USWNT has won the World Cup twice and reached the semifinals of all six. They lost the 2011 final to Japan on penalties, then beat Japan for gold in London. The Americans have the world’s best striking corps. They have, for all her off-the-field issues, arguably the world’s best goalkeeper. They have a strong, veteran defense and midfield in between. The women play the brand of U.S. Soccer the men’s team talks about. If they win credit experience. If they lose blame age. This team is bringing eight players over 30, 10 centurions and has just two players younger than 25. Odds: 9-4

Germany: Germans? Good at soccer? Shocking, I know. Germany won the 2003 and 2007 World Cups. They have won eight of the past nine European championships. But, they bowed out in the quarterfinals in 2011 as hosts. The Germans are the one squad that can rival the U.S. for talent and depth. In their qualifying group, they outscored opponents 62-4, including a 9-0 win over the second-place Russians. One concern: Nadine Kessler, Germany’s captain and reigning World Player of the Year, will miss the World Cup recovering from knee surgery. Odds: 4-1

Brazil: Brazil is women’s soccer’s Netherlands. Marta had an impressive stretch of five-straight World Player of the Year trophies. That’s about it in terms of end product. The Brazilians lost the gold medal match in Athens and Beijing. They also lost the 2007 final to Germany. The last two major tournaments have ousted Brazil in the quarterfinals. The Brazilians have the talent to win it all. They also have a draw that could dump a good team in the Round of 16. Odds: 6-1

Japan: The Japanese have come late to women’s soccer, but come hard. Behind 36-year-old captain Homare Sawa, the Japanese won the 2011 World Cup (had qualified from group stage once before), won silver at the 2012 Olympics and won their first Asian Cup. Most of that core returns for one last go in 2015. Similar age/experience debate as the United States, with six players over 30, six centurions and just four players under 26. Odds: 8-1

France: The French have a similar track record to the Japanese, though not quite as successful. They reached the semifinals of both the 2011 World Cup and the London Olympics. Before that, France had qualified for one tournament. Like the French men’s team, this group is strong and technically gifted (but without the divas). They have their “Zidane” in Louisa Necib. Odds: 10-1

Sweden: Consistently Europe’s second or third best team. The Swedes reached the semifinals in 2011 and the quarterfinals of the 2012 Olympics. Former U.S. coach Pia Sundhage took over after London. She’ll be trying to convert potential into end product. The Swedes were eliminated in the European Championship semifinals as hosts in 2013, losing 1-0 to Germany. Odds: 10-1

Canada: The Canadians are hosts. They finished a disappointing dead last out of 16 teams in 2011. But, they rebounded with a bronze medal effort at the 2012 Olympics. Star striker Christine Sinclair scored a hat-trick against the U.S. (in a game Canada probably deserved to win) and six total goals at the tournament. The trouble is the Canadians have looked up and down since. Maybe they ride the home field momentum. Odds: 10-1

THE U.S. BRACKET

Group D is the oft-mentioned “Group of Death.” Sweden (WSPI No. 6) is the strongest non-seeded team. Australia (No. 10) and Nigeria (No. 12) should also be formidable. For contrast, Germany plays Ivory Coast and Thailand, both among the tournament’s bottom four teams.

Winning the group offers an easy run. That’s why the U.S. are favored over Germany. The Group D winner faces a third-place finisher in the Round of 16. Their quarterfinal opponent would be a runner up from Group A or Group C. That could mean no team in the WSPI Top 10 until the semifinals. Not winning the group could be a bear. Finishing second sets up a probable Round of 16 date with Brazil and a quarterfinal meeting with Japan.

The U.S. does not have an easy group match. Losing to Sweden or dropping points elsewhere could be critical.

THE STORYLINES

Expansion: The Women’s World Cup expanded from 16 to 24 teams. That means eight new World Cup countries make the field. That also means a return to the wonky format from the 1994 men’s tournament with third-place teams qualifying. The draw could end up being critical. Winning a group could net you a benign, third-place finisher in the Round of 16. If you’re Brazil, it should net you the United States or Sweden.

The Turf: Every Women’s World Cup venue features artificial turf. The efficacy and safety of fake grass can be debated. What’s clear is FIFA has and would never play a Men’s World Cup on it. Prominent women’s players filed a gender discrimination lawsuit, but dropped it earlier this year, when FIFA proved unresponsive. FIFA also turned down an offer of free grass fields.

Potential FIFA Backlash: The U.S. Government has issued FIFA a red card. Prominent FIFA officials are canceling trips to the tournament. Will the U.S. team, participating in the immediate aftermath, face a backlash? Refereeing decisions can prove pivotal. Retaliating on the pitch would be gross, petty, and fiendish. But, remember who you’re dealing with.

[Photos via USAT, Getty]

from The Big Lead http://ift.tt/1KJzxwr