The Padres don't have to do anything, but they have a couple of San Diego natives who could make the roster substantially stronger.
Back in December of ... what was it? ... '14. Yes, December of '14, the San Diego Padres made approximately 38 different moves in the span of three hours. They had a new starting lineup, more or less, cobbled together from the sluggers their rivals didn't want. They had a new catcher and a new young outfielder, a third base prospect, starting pitching depth, and relief depth. They did it while keeping almost all of their top prospects. It was a dainty plié through an offseason minefield, and they came out the other side with something resembling a major league lineup. It was dizzying, dazzling.
Remember that?
That was awesome.
So. Now what?
It's been more than a month, and the Padres haven't done much. This might be the team. Is this the team? If it is, the computers have some bones to pick.
FanGraphs: 77-85
Baseball Prospectus: 83-79
Putting a symphony behind Robin Thicke would sound like Robin Thicke with a symphony behind it. The 2014 Padres hit .226/.292/.342 as a team -- basically a nine-lion Voltron that ended up swinging the bat like Carlos Zambrano. It was the Robin Thicke of offense. The Padres needed more than a symphony to paper over their crimes. Are Wil Myers, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Will Middlebrooks, and Derek Norris enough? Possibly. But there are still some options worth exploring. Namely, pitching.
The Padres can trade prospects, spend money, or stand pat. It sounds like an awful game show. Hey, do you know what I like? Awful game shows. So let's dive in.
Trade prospects
This is code for Cole Hamels. Who is from San Diego. Have you come across this piece of trivia? Oh, 30 times since Wednesday ... well, you shouldn't read that many baseball articles. They'll rot your brain.
The idea is simple: The Padres have prospects, the Phillies need prospects. The Phillies have an established ace; the Padres need an established ace. Swipe right, both of you! Swipe right!
The problem is that the Phillies are me with a Beckett's in 1989. The guide says these Mike Moore rookies are hot, hot, hot. I will not trade my Mike Moore rookie for anything less than 38 different rookies, preferably rated and/or with a golden cup on them. That's not a totally fair comparison, considering that Cole Hamels is awesome and has been for years, but all of the teams who would really, really, really like Cole Hamels really, really, really can't abide by the price the Phillies have put on his services.
The Phillies should ask for a lot. Hamels is exceptional, and he's a part of franchise lore like few others in a history that's more than a century old. That means something, you weirdos. Trading him for anything less than a blue-chip return is a good way for fans to look back in a decade or five and say, "Rick Wise? What in the ..." If you think it's inappropriate to compare Hamels to Steve Carlton, it really isn't. Not until we know what Hamels can't do.
The price for Hamels is high. Good. The question, then, is if the Padres want to cave. They have prospects, alright. They have a Gold Glove catcher who might not hit, a Mike Matheny-type who would have mortified statheads at the turn of the millennium, yet excites them now. They have projectable arms. They have outfielders with strikeout problems (shhhh) who are probably cool.
They can make a deal. There isn't a Kris Bryant or Byron Buxton in the bunch. There isn't a prospect that should make them wince and recoil. After the feverish offseason, though, the Padres might not be keen on ditching an entire farm system, Tigers-style.
Spend money
This is code for James Shields. Who lives in San Diego. Have you come across this piece of trivia? Oh, 30 times since ... wait a sec. I've heard this before.
So these are prodigal sons, plural. Both of whom would make the team substantially better. One would cost nothing but money and the #13 overall pick in the 2015 draft. One would cost several prospects, not just one, but he's the better pitcher. Both came into the league in 2006, so this is an easy comparison:
| Cole Hamels | James Shields | |
| IP | 1801 | 1910 |
| ERA | 3.27 | 3.72 |
| ERA+ | 125 | 111 |
| FIP | 3.48 | 3.77 |
| K/9 | 8.5 | 7.7 |
| BB/9 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| WAR | 40.4 | 26.7 |
The most important stat might not be up there: Hamels is two years younger than Shields. The odds of Hamels pitching up to his contract in 2018 is much greater than of Shields doing the same. Maybe there's some sort of delivery quirk or biomechanical anomaly that would make the Padres shy away from Hamels, but I doubt it. Both pitchers are among the most consistent in the game, and both pitchers have a long record of staying healthy. One's clearly better, though.
Another one would cost nothing but money. Just walk into the James Shields dealership, laugh at the salesperson's stupid jokes, slam a few of Shields' doors, get some coffee in styrofoam cups, and drive him off the lot. You know the Padres would just screw up the draft pick anyway. There's a new front office, sure, but the curse of the Padres first-rounder is something that's passed down for generations, like an heirloom or genetic defect. Shields would cost nothing but money, and he would save the prospects for a possible deadline spree if the Padres really are jockeying with the Dodgers and/or Giants for first place.
Shields isn't as good as Hamels, no, but few pitchers are. You can eliminate four words from that sentence and make it much more enticing: Few pitchers are as good as Shields. It's not like the Padres are deciding between Hamels and Dillon Gee. There isn't really a way to go wrong, here, at least not without the benefit of hindsight. Though there's one more option ...
Stand pat
Keep the money. Keep the prospects. The projected rotation, as is:
- Andrew Cashner
- Tyson Ross
- Ian Kennedy
- Robbie Erlin
- Brandon Morrow
There's Odrisamer Despaigne in reserve, and the only good thing about having six dozen prospects and young pitchers needing Tommy John surgery is getting them all back.
It's not a bad group, not in the slightest. Cashner is the de facto ace if he can stay healthy, but Ross looks good at the top of a rotation, too. Kennedy is now three years away from his last excellent season, but he continues to miss bats for 200 innings at a time. Erlin and Morrow have the right mix of risk vs. reward at the back end, and there's depth behind them that includes Casey Kelly. They don't need Shields to call themselves contenders. They're not a hot dog without a bun, looking to become a sandwich. They're a hot dog with a bun, looking for mustard to make the sandwich even better.
They don't need it. The difference between Shields and Morrow would be, what, three or four wins? And that's in the worst-case scenario for Morrow. If he can actually pitch a little (or if Corey Luebke comes back, or Josh Johnson, or ...), the difference might be two wins. Maybe less. That's not a lot of difference for scores of millions of dollars and a long-term commitment.
With the NL Wild Card, though, two wins is a huge deal when there are five or six other teams in the mix. Every win past 81 helps the team almost exponentially. Standing pat is a huge risk.
If I'm running the Padres, I'm already fired because I'm bad at predicting baseball, but before security escorts me out, I make the trade for Hamels. Choosing Shields makes a lot of sense, and on another day, perhaps that's the one that piques my curiosity. But there's no way to get as good, as quickly. The Padres have built a mighty fascinating team. They're just a swipe away from compelling, though, and that should be the goal.
Swipe right, Padres! Swipe right!
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