New England smoked Indy when they met earlier this season, but the underrated mobility of Andrew Luck and a red-hot Colts secondary should make things more interesting this time around.
On Sunday in the AFC Championship, the Colts have the perfect opportunity to defy some recent history against the Patriots and announce their arrival among the NFL's elite.
Things have NOT gone well for the Colts the last few times they faced the Patriots. In the three games against New England since Andrew Luck arrived in Indianapolis, they've been outscored by a combined 78 points. When they met in the Divisional round of the playoffs last year, the Pats rolled, 43-22. In Week 11 of this season, the Patriots won, 42-20.
Indianapolis has certainly looked like a different team since that Week 11 blowout, winning seven of its last eight, including dominant defensive performances in playoff wins over Cincinnati and Denver.
Facing Tom Brady is never an easy task, however, particularly in Foxborough, where he's won 60 of his last 67 home games. He was brilliant in a win over the Ravens last week in the Divisional round, throwing three touchdowns to guide his team back from two different 14-point deficits. When he dropped a perfect dime into the bread basket of Brandon LaFell with just over five minutes remaining, it was the first time New England had led all night.
Lets' take a look at three questions that will help determine which of these teams move on to the Super Bowl.
1. Can the Colts stop the run?
During the Patriots' blowout win in the playoffs last year, LeGarrette Blount ran rampant on the Colts defense for 166 yards and four touchdowns. When the Patriots blasted them again this season, it was undrafted rookie running back Jonas Gray who went off, adding four touchdowns of his own to go with a 201 rushing yards.
It hasn't been Brady killing the Colts, it's been the ground game.
In typical Bill Belichick fashion, there's no real telling which Patriots running back will carry the load on Sunday. Limited by an ankle injury and an extended stay in Belichick's dog house (he was late to practice once), Gray hasn't done much since that breakout performance. Blount, who's back in New England after beginning the season with the Steelers, had just three carries against the Ravens. In their last four games, the Patriots have had four different leading rushers (Brandon Bolden and Shane Vereen being the other two).
The Colts don't know who's going to lead the rushing attack, but they know it's coming.
2. Can the Patriots pass rush catch Andrew Luck?
The Pats were paying rent in the Ravens' backfield last week, hitting Joe Flacco five times and hurrying him an absurd 23 times -- yet they didn't mange a single sack. If they can't track down one of the league's most heavy-footed quarterbacks, how can they expect to get to a guy with the pocket mobility of Luck?
Luck faced 16 hurries from the fearsome Denver pass rush in the Divisional round but was never sacked. Playing behind a constantly revolving offensive line, Luck has faced plenty of pressure this season, but his size, ability to slide in the pocket and throw from various arm angles makes him tough to bring down. If you let him start moving around and extending plays, bad things happen.
Just ask the Bengals.
3. Is the Colts secondary as good as it looks?
The last three starting quarterbacks to face the Indy defense combined to complete 51 percent of their passes for an average of just 142 yards per game. The defense has allowed a total of 33 points in that span.
But each of those quarterback performances comes with an asterisk. The first game was against Charlie Whitehurst, the second was against Playoff Andy Dalton and the third was against an injured Peyton Manning who hadn't looked like himself in over a month.
We know cornerback Vontae Davis is a stud -- quarterbacks throwing into his coverage have an NFL-low 38.8 passer rating -- but can the rest of the Colts secondary keep up its stellar play against Brady and a Patriots passing attack that hung 408 yards on Baltimore?
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